TLDR
- SOL has dropped 12% in the past week, facing rejection at the $145 resistance level
- Price is currently testing critical support around $117-$125, which has historically held firm
- Technical indicators show bearish divergence on weekly RSI, suggesting weakening bullish momentum
- Two possible scenarios: rebound from support to new highs or breakdown leading to extended decline
- Current price action is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern that could determine near-term direction
Solana (SOL) is currently at a pivotal moment after experiencing a sharp decline in recent days. The cryptocurrency has fallen approximately 12% over the past week, with bears pushing the price below several key support levels.
The downward pressure began after SOL failed to maintain momentum above the $135 level. This decline mirrors similar movements seen in other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum during the same period.
The price action pushed SOL below the $125 support, touching a low of $122.64 before entering a consolidation phase. Bulls have made attempts to recover, but these efforts have faced strong resistance around the $126 level.
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis shows SOL trading below its 100-hourly simple moving average. A rising channel has formed on the hourly chart with support near the $124 mark, suggesting some structure to the current price action.
Resistance levels have become clearly defined during this period of weakness. The $126 level represents the immediate resistance, followed by a stronger barrier at $128. The $132 level, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downward move, appears to be a major hurdle for bulls to overcome.
The current situation follows a significant milestone where SOL had previously reached a new all-time high near $295. However, the cryptocurrency failed to sustain that level, leading to the current correction phase.
Market watchers have noted a bearish divergence on the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). This technical pattern occurs when price makes a higher high while the RSI prints a lower high, typically signaling declining bullish momentum.
Of particular importance is the $117 support zone. This level combines horizontal support with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and has held firm for over a year. How SOL reacts to this support level may determine its medium-term direction.
The RSI currently stands at 40, a level that has aligned with local bottoms in previous corrections. Historically, this RSI zone has coincided with the beginning of upward movements for SOL.
#Solana – Unbiased Analysis
Solana hit a new all-time high of $295 this cycle but failed to hold above it.
A massive bearish divergence is in play on the weekly chart, and the price is now testing a key horizontal support that has held strong for the past year.
The 1.618… pic.twitter.com/X1QCVaF0Kn
— Mags (@thescalpingpro) March 31, 2025
Adding to the bearish pressure, recent market data revealed that a large holder offloaded over $7.6 million in SOL. This selling activity has contributed to the negative sentiment surrounding the asset.
On the 4-hour chart, SOL price is confined within a symmetrical triangle pattern. This formation occurs when two trendlines with equal slopes converge. The resolution of this pattern – whether through a breakdown or breakout – will likely signal the next directional move.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has yet to close fully above the zero signal line, adding weight to the possibility of further downside in the near term.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has dropped to -0.01, indicating increasing selling pressure. If this metric continues to decline, SOL’s price recovery may be delayed, potentially keeping the cryptocurrency trading between $116 and $125 in the short term.
Two clear scenarios have emerged from the current technical setup. In the bullish case, SOL could rebound strongly from the $117 level, supported by improving momentum indicators and increasing volume. This could potentially lead to a renewed upward push toward fresh highs.
In the alternative bearish scenario, if support at $117 fails to hold, SOL may enter a more extended decline. A breakdown below this zone would weaken bullish sentiment and potentially trigger a move toward lower support levels, possibly reaching $112.15 and marking a new yearly low.
If the more optimistic scenario plays out and SOL breaks above the upper trendline of the triangle pattern, it could target the $155.24 level. Should buying pressure increase significantly, the price might even reach $180.90.
For now, SOL remains in this state of uncertainty, with traders and investors closely monitoring how price responds to these critical technical levels in the coming days.
